With CRISIS, maximum pessimism comes extraordinary men and measures
Monday, June 30th, 2008Our future couldnt be any scarier, crude oil price hitting record high USD 143, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL beaten down to less than 11500 points, uncertain in local political scene, gasoline price in MALAYSIA runs up to RM 2.70/liter, RICE, SOYBEAN, CPO all prices increased by almost >100%, steel price rose 40%, copper price rose relentlessly etc. Inflation is at all time high, if this trend were to continue, our future is unthinkable, bleak, hopeless, inflation outrunning your promotion and pay rise or investment return, how could one survives?
What will happen in future? I dont know, but I do know one thing, with maximum pessimism comes extraordinary men and measures, this is the time where heroes are born and legend is created. With maxium pessimism comes opportunity.
You think crude oil price of 200 is scary, but on the flip side it is a good thing. Never have I seen the automotive players such as GM, FORD paid so much attention in R&D of hybrid technology that they are actually starting to roll out new hybrid model annually. If crude oil price were to stay at USD 20 per barrel, who cares about R&D, we will continue to waste the resources as we like as if there is no tomorrow. But do remember, like it or not, oil will still run out one day. So instead of scrambling like mad when the day of reckoning arrives, it is actually a good thing that we start worrying right now when we still have 20~30 years of oil to spare. Even as I am typing this, hybrid plug-in is on its way, a car that runs on Li-Ion battery that can run 40 miles without petrol and charged through socket outlet, THAT IS WHAT I CALLED INNOVATION ! Isnt that impressive ! INNOVATION can only be spurred when CRISIS arises.
As someone working in a semiconductor company that witnessed almost the demise of it, only to see it to rise from ashes again within a year, surprising everyone from WALL STREET to MAIN STREET, to reclaim number 1 spot, sometimes the fact is you need a CRISIS to get the attention. Without the crisis, we will still be running today 400W 5GHz Pentium 4, you not going to like that, the CPU fan noise will blow you away, not the performance. Now we have a cool efficient sub 100~200W quad core processors instead of the power hungry monster.
So how about in local scene, RM 2.70/liter gasoline, dead liao lah this time. But wait do you notice some changes recently, where are the peak hour jams? do you know road accident fatal rate is dropping? With CRISIS comes extraordinary measure, and the measure actually comes from the public. Although our government is responsible for the poor public transport service, but undeniable we are also part of the wastage system that doesnt practice car pooling, use public transport when we can, buy fuel efficient cars, we have to ADMIT it that we also didnt fully do our part. Now I start to see people car pooling, using public transport, opt for fuel efficient cars when buying, isnt that wonderful thing that MALAYSIANS are changing - indirectly helping the environment. Although many are changing for their wallet sake, but what the heck - IT IS a good thing - undeniable, PERIOD.
So how about in political scene? Couldnt be any messier, running like a circus. Weak leader, racial issues, open criticism everywhere - so what can we do? With CRISIS comes extraordinary men and measures, and that is witnessed now across MALAYSIA. MALAYSIANS now, the new generation, more vocal, understand their rights and speak up their mind, even the older generation politicians are following the trend. We no longer keep our silence for the sake of stability. Regardless of opposition or government supporter, we should speak out and criticize when it is right and when it is wrong. This will not only ripple through the government administration, soon, it will ripple through the whole private sector work force. In this transition period, many will find it hard to swallow and adjust to it, but this is a MUST for MALAYSIA democratic system to be jump started after years of dorman. Draconian laws should be abolished if not now, old generation politicians / leaders should make way for new generation.
So how about relentless rise of crude oil price /raw material due to future trading, now it seemed that we cannot do anything about it, but I doubt this speculation activity will be allowed to run free hand forever, sooner or later the government will be forced to take action. US administration is already thinking how to curb the hot money from pension fund, investment fund from flowing into the oil that rose from 2 bil fund to 260 bil fund within a short frame of 2 years time. IT is a little bit more difficult on the agriculture front where global warming effect is punishing us, but with this CRISIS comes the need to innovate the agriculture and push for more R&D fund into agriculture sector.
If inflation and rise of raw material is hurting your wallet, perhaps you should start to think how you spend your money every month? Do you just leave the electricity running when you are out? do you just leave your PC “ON” 24 hours a day when it is doing nothing? do you go for RM 15 coffee although you have a choice of RM 1 coffee? do you cook yourself? Do you always buy unnecessary branded stuffs? Do you spend on most expensive items without planning / thinking /comparing? Do you use public transport when you can? - without CRISIS, you will not think about this and continue to waste because good future never end. Unfortunately, reality is harsh, and often end when you least prepared and expected.
When things turn into CRISIS, it is an ALARM to remind us that we had overlooked something for too long and it will force us to take action, spurred for more ideas, innovation. So CRISIS is good, because with CRISIS comes extraordinary men and measures. If things dont turn into CRISIS, we will take things for granted, we will waste, we will forget our responsibilties. So my friend, be hopeful of the future and stay optimistic, because CRISIS had started, and we are in maximum pessimism state, the changes is just not far around the corner. - CJ
